August 2, 2019

Congressional Retirements To Date

Owen Taylor

Yesterday evening, three-term Texas Republican Will Hurd announced his retirement from Congress at the end of his current term.

Hurd, who has represented Texas’ 23rd district since 2014, is the only House Republican serving a district along the United States-Mexico border. The district presents itself as one of the most susceptible districts to flip for Democrats in 2020, as it voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a 3-point margin. The only other currently Republican-held districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 are New York-24 and Pennsylvania-1, represented by John Katko and Brian Fitzpatrick. Texas-23 has remained highly competitive for Hurd throughout his tenure, as his previous victory margins have been a narrow 2.1%, 1.3%, and 0.5% respectively.

By The Numbers: Republican vs Democratic House Conferences

House Democrats: 235
House Republicans: 197

Hurd is the only black member of the House Republican Conference, in stark contrast to 21% of House Democrats who are African-American.

The gender gap between conferences is also vast. Martha Roby and Susan Brooks’ retirement announcements over the past few months mean that female representation in the GOP House conference could seemingly drop to 5%, as opposed to 37% of House Democrats who are women.

Who To Watch Out For Next

House GOP committee rules term-limit a member who serves as Chairman or Ranking Member to six years. Earlier this week, Texas Republican Mike Conaway, who’s served as Chairman or Ranking Member of the House Agriculture Committee since 2015, announced his retirement. On Monday, Utah Republican Rob Bishop also confirmed his retirement. He, too, would be term-limited as Ranking Member on the Natural Resources Committee. GOP House members wishing to remain in their committee leadership posts beyond six years would require a waiver from the Republican Steering Committee.

Prime will continue monitoring all House and Senate retirement announcements. Here’s a glance at that list so far this cycle: